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SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook

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ACUS03 KWNS 140731
SWODY3
SPC AC 140729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES/NRN PLAINS AT 12Z/SAT...SUBSEQUENT EWD EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS QUITE VARIED IN BOTH AMPLITUDE AND LOCATION AS IT IMPINGES ON THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN CANADA. THIS RENDERS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT SHOULD TRAIL SWWD...MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST WITH HOW THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES ON SAT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ONGOING MCS CLUSTERS AT 12Z. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS ENHANCED BY ANY REMNANT MCV/S TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY. WITH A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME...ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUSTAINED INTO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT GREATER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP.

FARTHER SW...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGER BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT AND S OF ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM D2 ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. BUT WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...HIGHER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND LIMIT SUSTENANCE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 06/14/2012

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