ACUS02 KWNS 140552
SWODY2
SPC AC 140550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE NRN TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN/NRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/FRI WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO NRN PLAINS BY EARLY SAT. SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NRN PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN THE NRN PLAINS. A N/S-ORIENTED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI EVENING/NIGHT.

...NRN TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL SELYS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...THE EFFECT OF A LIKELY D1 MCS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS RENDERS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN DEPICTED BY MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS DO DEPICT A CORRIDOR OF ROBUST OVERTURNING/STABILIZATION ON D1 ADVECTING NWWD IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS D2...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECOVERY OCCURRING N AND S OF THIS PLUME. BUT EVEN THIS GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY UNDERDOING THE EFFECTS OF D1 OVERTURNING. NEVERTHELESS...WITH STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING.

ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INVOF THE BLACK HILLS REGION. WITH STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND THREATS. FARTHER S...MODEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. BUT WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO KS...A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS MAY EVOLVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WILL DEFER ON POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK EXPANSION SWD GIVEN THE WEAKER SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE EFFECTS OF D1 CONVECTION.

...MID-MO VALLEY...
MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN ONGOING MCS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID-MO VALLEY AT 12Z/FRI...WITH A REMNANT MCV LINGERING THROUGH D2 THAT IMPINGES ON THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH ON THE FRINGE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT ON FRI AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD LOW PROBABILITY AS PREDICTABILITY IS POOR OF WHERE THIS SPATIALLY OCCURS.

..GRAMS.. 06/14/2012