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SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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ACUS01 KWNS 141301
SWODY1
SPC AC 141259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLNS NE INTO THE UPR MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF E TX AND WRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS AND NRN PLNS TO THE UPR GRT LKS THIS PERIOD...NW OF A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE MID MS AND OH VLYS. THE RIDGE WILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY AS FAIRLY STRONG UPR LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SE SK/WRN ND MOVES ENE INTO NW ONT. A SECONDARY BELT OF ENHANCED W TO NW FLOW WILL ARC FROM CNTRL NM ACROSS SE TX INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITHIN THIS FLOW...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF TWO MCVS...ONE NOW OVER THE SABINE RVR VLY AND THE OTHER THE FL PANHANDLE. BOTH MCVS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC WAVE NOW IN ERN SD SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE INTO MN...WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW TRACKING ENE ACROSS SRN MB AND WRN ONT LATER TODAY/TNGT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THE SD LOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE E/SE INTO THE UPR MS VLY/CNTRL PLNS TNGT...BUT SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY FROM UPR MI TO NW KS BY 12Z FRI. THE COLD FRONT AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SVR STORMS THIS PERIOD.

...UPR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
COMPLEX...LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTM SYSTEM NOW OVER CNTRL MN/WRN WI IS ELEVATED ATOP RESIDUAL COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING GRT LKS SFC HIGH. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE APPEARS PRESENT /PER MPX RAOB/ FOR SVR HAIL IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ON ITS SRN AND SWRN FLANK...SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT...SLOWLY MOISTENING...40 KT SSWLY LLJ.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MN MCS...AND S OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...APPRECIABLE LOW LVL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED BY AFTN AHEAD OF ESE-ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL MN SSW INTO SE SD AND NW IA. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP EML...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG BY AFTN. AS DEEP WSWLY FLOW AND SHEAR STRENGTHEN ON SRN FRINGE OF UPR IMPULSE...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES...DESPITE FACT THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PASS N OF REGION. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL/ERN MN AND ADJACENT NW WI...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVE.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION STILL REMAIN NEBULOUS S OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS. BUT SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS THAT WILL BE CONTINUING E ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT. THESE MAY ENHANCE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER SRN/ERN NEB AND WRN KS/FAR ERN CO LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

WHILE WSWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST...PRESENCE OF DEEP EML ATOP A MOISTENING AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/ SHOULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE TO 4000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND. GIVEN FOCUS FOR LOW LVL ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE STALLING FRONT...AND NOCTURNAL/DYNAMIC STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ AFTER SUNSET...THE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCC. SUCH A SYSTEM COULD YIELD MORE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL BEFORE IT WEAKENS EARLY FRI.

...E TX/GULF CST TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI... COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AIR /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ AND PERIODIC UPLIFT INVOF AFOREMENTIONED MCVS EXPECTED TO FOSTER A CONTINUING RISK FOR STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND FROM E TX E/SE ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST. WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUSTENANCE. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER E/SE TX AND WRN LA...WHERE 30 KT NWLY SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONGER-LIVED CELLS. WHILE ALL THE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...SPORADIC SVR ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 06/14/2012