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Counties at a glance:
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skywarn
U.S. Hazards Assessment

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FXUS21 KWNC 131919
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT JUNE 13 2012

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG OFF THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST AND SPREAD INLAND TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST U.S. BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. A CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE ALASKA PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, JUNE 16.

HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH OREGON COASTS, JUNE 16-20.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, JUNE 19.

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, JUNE 16.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT PLAINS, JUNE 18-19.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, JUNE 18-20.

ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, JUNE 17-19.

POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, JUNE 16-18.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION, INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

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

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE REGIONS DURING BOTH PERIODS IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY ELEVATED, BUT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SPECIFICS AND SOME RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY, NO SPECIFIC HAZARD AREAS ARE DESIGNATED AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCES OF FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE ELEVATED AS WELL OVER THIS PERIOD DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES JUNE 19 ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS THE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA STRENGTHENS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, BUT THESE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED HAZARDOUS CRITERIA FOR SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF TIME. TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES JUNE 18 MAY REACH 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 100-105 FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. ALSO, PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100 DEGREES SUNDAY JUNE 16-17 AND AGAIN ON JUNE 20.

FOLLOWING THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS FOR SOME AREAS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE FAR WESTERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH LOW SOIL MOISTURE AND A SUPPLY OF DRY SURFACE FUELS, LEAD TO AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK JUNE 17-19.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COASTS JUNE 16-20 RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH WINDS.

A STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE JUNE 16. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, CHOPPY SEAS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD COASTLINE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FOR THURSDAY JUNE 21 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 27: TROPICAL SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY (IN VARIOUS FORMS) HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND FAVORS INCREASED TROPICAL CONVECTION, BROAD SCALE LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE TROPICS DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE START OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND SOUTH FLORIDA IS LIKELY TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE LATEST INDICATING DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE NEXT WEEK AND MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE U.S. COAST. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

MOST LONG-TERM DROUGHT AREAS INDICATED ON THE MAP ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST WEEK. THE DROUGHT STATUS IN THESE REGIONS WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE NEXT RELEASE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR TOMORROW.

FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK

$$